Saint Mary's

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	40.0
Current RPI:	40
Expected SOS:	169
Current SOS:	169
Current Record:	28-5
Expected Record:	28-5
Current Conf Record:	17-3
Expected Conf Record:	17-3
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	12-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-0
Current OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC Record:	11-2
Expected OOC RPI:	44
Expected OOC SOS:	182

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
28-5	40.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Mary's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	85-68	W	100%
11-13	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	92-74	W	100%
11-15	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	76-57	W	100%
11-19	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	61-79	W	100%
11-23	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	N	71-89	W	100%
11-24	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	N	84-79	L	0%
11-26	Georgia (79.0)	SEC	N	83-81	L	0%
12-2	California (216.0)	P12	A	63-74	W	100%
12-4	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	70-54	W	100%
12-9	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	97-73	W	100%
12-16	UC Irvine (119.0)	BW	H	73-66	W	100%
12-19	Dayton (146.0)	A10	H	69-54	W	100%
12-22	UNC Asheville (130.0)	BSth	H	95-69	W	100%
12-28	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	87-59	W	100%
12-30	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	64-74	W	100%
1-4	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	74-56	W	100%
1-6	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	70-63	W	100%
1-11	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	57-81	W	100%
1-13	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	67-91	W	100%
1-18	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	71-74	W	100%
1-20	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	69-72	W	100%
1-25	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	75-62	W	100%
1-27	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	72-55	W	100%
2-1	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	79-43	W	100%
2-3	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	62-65	W	100%
2-8	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	62-83	W	100%
2-10	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	65-78	L	0%
2-15	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	70-63	L	0%
2-17	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	61-73	W	100%
2-22	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	75-61	W	100%
2-24	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	67-40	W	100%
3-3	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	N	69-66	W	100%
3-5	BYU (67.0)	WCC	N	72-85	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Mary's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Saint Mary's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Saint Mary's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Saint Mary's	WCC	26.44	26.44	83.66	83.66	17.80	17.80
BYU	WCC	5.48	5.48	74.19	74.19	2.65	2.65
Pepperdine	WCC	5.42	5.42	17.86	17.86	-3.49	-3.49
Gonzaga	WCC	4.08	4.08	90.62	90.62	3.31	3.31
San Francisco	WCC	4.05	4.05	53.33	53.33	0.27	0.27
Portland	WCC	4.05	4.05	25.93	25.93	-1.95	-1.95
Loyola Marymount	WCC	4.03	4.03	35.71	35.71	-1.15	-1.15
San Diego	WCC	4.02	4.02	60.71	60.71	0.86	0.86
Santa Clara	WCC	4.00	4.00	37.04	37.04	-1.04	-1.04
Pacific	WCC	3.95	3.95	44.83	44.83	-0.41	-0.41
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.78	1.78	64.29	64.29	0.51	0.51
Seattle	WAC	1.69	1.69	58.62	58.62	0.29	0.29
San Jose St.	MWC	1.67	1.67	10.71	10.71	-1.31	-1.31
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.66	1.66	86.21	86.21	1.21	1.21
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.64	1.64	17.24	17.24	-1.08	-1.08
UC Irvine	BW	1.62	1.62	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
California	P12	1.62	1.62	26.67	26.67	-0.75	-0.75
Washington St.	P12	1.59	1.59	36.67	36.67	-0.42	-0.42
St. Francis PA	NEC	1.56	1.56	59.26	59.26	0.29	0.29
Georgia	SEC	1.54	1.54	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Harvard	Ivy	1.54	1.54	58.62	58.62	0.27	0.27
Dayton	A10	1.52	1.52	46.67	46.67	-0.10	-0.10
UNC Asheville	BSth	1.52	1.52	63.33	63.33	0.40	0.40
UC Riverside	BW	0.32	0.32	24.14	24.14	-0.17	-0.17
UC Davis	BW	0.32	0.32	66.67	66.67	0.11	0.11
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.32	0.32	70.00	70.00	0.13	0.13
Portland St.	BSky	0.26	0.26	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.25	0.25	24.14	24.14	-0.13	-0.13
Long Beach St.	BW	0.24	0.24	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego St.	MWC	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Nevada	MWC	0.22	0.22	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Utah Valley	WAC	0.22	0.22	65.52	65.52	0.07	0.07
Stanford	P12	0.22	0.22	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.22	0.22	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.20	0.20	14.29	14.29	-0.14	-0.14
Idaho St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.19	0.19	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Weber St.	BSky	0.19	0.19	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Utah St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.18	0.18	67.65	67.65	0.06	0.06
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Massachusetts	A10	0.16	0.16	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Idaho	BSky	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.14	0.14	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.13	0.13	3.33	3.33	-0.12	-0.12
Southern Utah	BSky	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Colorado St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	32.26	32.26	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.10	0.10	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Penn	Ivy	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Oregon	P12	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
VCU	A10	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.09	0.09	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.09	0.09	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Longwood	BSth	0.08	0.08	13.33	13.33	-0.06	-0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.07	0.07	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.07	0.07	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Rhode Island	A10	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.07	0.07	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
High Point	BSth	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.04	0.04	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.04	0.04	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.04	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.04	0.04	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.04	0.04	88.24	88.24	0.03	0.03
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.02	0.02	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	80.00	80.00	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.02	0.02	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01